There are several reasons for what appears to be an increasingly defeatist narrative. First is the worsening situation at the front where Ukraine lacks both manpower and equipment and ammunition to hold the line against Russia. This will not change any time soon. The new Ukrainian mobilisation law has
only just been approved. It will take time to train, deploy and integrate new troops at the front.
At the same time,
Russia’s economy has been resilient to western sanctions and seen growth driven by the war. On top of deliveries from
Iran and North Korea dual-use technology, including electrical components and machine tools for arms manufacture, has been
supplied by China.
Moscow has also managed to produce a lot of
its own equipment and ammunition. Much of this is being made in facilities beyond the reach of Ukrainian weapons.
This is not to say that all is well with
Russian resupplies, but they are superior to what Ukraine can manage on its own in the
absence of western support.