Long hard winter, can we avoid a Christmas blizzard?
Main conclusions for DEC 24th:
- Daily #infection rate est. from 9,000 to 45,000
- Daily nos. new admissions est. 130 to 250 (if omicron same admission risk as delta)
- Daily nos. new admissions est. 120 to 190 (if omicron half the risk of admission as delta)
- Primarily vaccinated persons over the age of 50 expected admitted
See figure 3 in the report: Daily simulated new admissions for delta (green), omikron (orange) and overall (purple). Observed total number of new admissions black dots. Figure shows a number of sensitivity scenarios, all of which assume maximum vaccine efficacy factor 0.7 lower against omicron vs. delta. Sensitivity scenarios range respectively moderately receding vs. high declining immunity, as well as relative infection rate 1.5 and 2. Assumption risk of hospitalization same for omicron and delta (see report for other assumptions and details).
New infection-reducing measures (restrictions):
- Could have an effect on infection rates after approx. a week
- Takes up to two weeks to effect can be seen in admissions.
Some of the limitations in report:
- Only known omicron for 3 weeks
- Still many unresolved issues
- Especially, vaccines effect on infection, serious illness and vaccine effect decrease over time
- Projections only possible scenarios based on many assumptions about omicron
- In addition to significant model uncertainties, changes in population behavior can have a decisive effect on projections and thus infection and hospitalization rates
Authors report , the hard working colleagues:
Camilla Holten Møller, Mette Trads Steen, Robert Skov, Peter Michael Bager, Rasmus Skytte Eriksen, Adam Mielke, Lasse Engbo Christiansen et al.