Dr Tim Crocker-Buqué, Clinical Epidemiologist, LSHTM, said:
“To say that the mortality rate of ICU patients is 50% is misleading and may induce panic.
“More accurately it shows that of the 21% of those patients who have left critical care, 48% of them had died. However, it excludes the 79% patients who do not have an outcome yet. Importantly, this is not a mortality rate, as described in some media reports, which is a complicated statistic to calculate and requires calculation based on a pre-specified population.
“The crude death rate could be calculated, but this still has to be related to an underlying population. So this would be 48% of all the people who have left critical care, but would be 10.2% of all the people who have been admitted to critical care since the start of the outbreak. Overall the population of patients with an outcome (n=165) is too small at the moment, and unlikely to be representative of all the patients admitted to critical care.
“Of note, these are very early data, so the patients who have already died have had very short stays in critical care (3-4 days), suggesting they may have deteriorated much quicker than other patients and so are unlikely to be representative and may be reflecting a higher risk of death in this early group that died.”
Prof Duncan Young, Professor of Intensive Care Medicine, University of Oxford, said:
“The Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) have released their second weekly report on patients with COVID-19 disease being treated in intensive care units (ICUs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
“There had been 846 admissions of patients with COVID-19 to the ICUs by Friday 27th March. Due to the rapidly changing situation ICNARC only had good data on 775 patients.
“Three quarters of ICUs had treated at least one patient with COVID-19, the remainder have not yet admitted a case. As with last week’s report, the majority of the cases are in London and the Thames Valley areas.
“Most cases are still being treated in an ICU (609). A total of 86 patients have been discharged from the ICU, though a proportion of these have had to be readmitted. Seventy-six patients have died. As would be expected, over half the survivors were patients who did not require treatment with a ventilator and so were less severely infected.
“The average age of patients was 61, and as before there are many more male patients (70%). There is usually a slight excess of males in all patients admitted to an ICUs but not as great as seen in the COVID-19 cases. So far the discharged patients have only stayed on the ICU for around three days, but there are many patients still being treated and I would expect the average duration of ICU care to increase in future reports.
“In the last report there was a suggestion that the proportion of obese patients was greater than expected. This report shows the BMI/age distribution for the COVID-19 patients and the general population. The BMI distribution of the patients in ICU with COVID-19 matches the population, so it is not likely that obesity is linked to severe COVID-19 infection requiring an ICU admission. ....
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