Normalcy bias, or
normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will function in the future the way they normally have functioned in the past and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for disasters, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its
disaster preparations. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.
[1]
The normalcy bias can manifest itself in various disasters, ranging from car crashes to world-historical events. It is hypothesized that the normalcy bias may be caused by the way the brain processes new information. Stress slows information processing, and when the brain cannot find an acceptable response to a situation, it fixates on a single and sometimes default solution. This single resolution can result in unnecessary injury or death in disaster situations. The lack of preparation for disasters often leads to inadequate shelter, supplies, and evacuation plans. Thus, normalcy bias can cause people to drastically underestimate the effects of the disaster and assume that everything will be all right. The negative effects of normalcy bias can be combatted through the four stages of disaster response: preparation, warning, impact, and aftermath.
Normalcy bias has also been called
analysis paralysis,
the ostrich effect,
[2] and by
first responders,
the negative panic.
[3] The opposite of normalcy bias is overreaction, or worst-case scenario bias,
[4][5] in which small deviations from normality are dealt with as signals of an impending catastrophe.
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