Russia’s Next Land Grab Won’t Be in an Ex-Soviet State. It Will Be in Europe.
Saakashvilin teoriaa, että Ruotsi tai Suomi voi olla potentiaalinen kohde Venäjän aggressioille. Ja ei, tankit ei ole tulossa Helsinkiin, vaan mahdollista olisi alueselkkaus pohjoisessa.
"Russia’s most likely target in the near future is either Finland or Sweden; although both are members of the EU, they are not members of NATO. By attacking a non-NATO country, Putin does not risk a proportional response in accordance with Article 5. But by targeting a European country, he can expect to reap the rewards of public approval at home from voters who are
desperate for a victory. This is a simple cost-benefit analysis that Putin has conducted, openly, many times before. Each investment of Russian force has paid dividends. Finland and Sweden meet both requirements.
I do not expect Russian tanks to roll into Helsinki or Stockholm unopposed. But it would be relatively simple for Moscow to execute a land grab in a remote Arctic enclave or on a small island, like Sweden’s
Gotland, considering the strategic capabilities Russia has built on its northern flank. After all, who would go to war over a frozen Baltic island or piece of Finland’s tundra? NATO wouldn’t, but Putin would—because the stakes are higher for him."